40 ordspråk av Dan Niles

Dan Niles

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The problem is how long will it take for the fundamentals to stop getting worse, and we don't see that happening any time soon.

The bottom line is they (Cisco) said the bottom may be one-to-two quarters out so that puts you back to firm footing with reality saying this is not over yet.

For those who thought the price war was aggressive, you haven't seen anything yet.

Dell reaffirmed their guidance for the third quarter, but gave no guidance going forward. They also said that industry growth for the third quarter was going to be worse than expected.

If the shareholders vote against this deal, it is hard to see how she will remain. In our opinion, the only beneficiaries to the current increase in uncertainty are Dell and IBM.

The merger uncertainty being a big concern hasn't seemed to affect their corporate demand as much as we would have expected, so we think [the fourth quarter] ended up pretty well for both consumer and corporate [demand] for them.

This is yet another data point that the general IT spending pickup continues to stretch out in time. We do not see a recovery till after the summer at the earliest and even then expect the recovery to be gradual.

It's easy for No. 2 to gain share when No. 1 can't deliver enough products. It will get more interesting in 2006 as Intel brings new capacity on line.

Our stance has been in big enterprise applications, it was obvious that people were buying ahead to get their systems ready for Y2K. The mainframe business is a dying business, and our feeling was IBM would see it in the third and fourth quarters because the growth patterns weren't normal.

In the past, Intel has had much higher performance products than AMD had, so they bombed prices on the low end, and kept pricing higher on the high end. This time, AMD's got as speedy processors as Intel does at the high end. There's nothing Intel can do. They can't bomb prices without hurting themselves.

As a result, we believe forward EPS estimates at best will remain unchanged and most likely will need to be lowered.

Cisco's inability to reduce its inventory after the October quarter when revenues grew 14 percent quarter over quarter and inventory grew by 59 percent quarter over quarter reaffirms our view that we have not yet seen the worst of the inventory correction for semiconductor suppliers.

We remain negative on PCs and semis and believe there is still downside risk to estimates and stock prices.

Over the past two years, AMD has increased its market share against Intel from 13 percent to 21 percent. For those who thought the price war was aggressive, you haven't seen anything yet.

Dell's forecast paints an ugly picture of current trends and calls into question the credibility of a seasonally better [third quarter] that others have forecast.

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