24 ordspråk av Daniel Katzive

Daniel Katzive

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The better tone in global equity markets as crude prices moderate a bit has helped ease risk aversion concerns, to the dollar's benefit.

We think it's really too soon to see a definitive change from the BOJ. It's more of a second quarter story.

The FX market is watching interest rate markets and short- end yields have come off and that's because core CPI was tame. For the dollar to continue to do well, you need interest rate expectations to continue to move in its favor, and with a fair amount of tightening already priced in, that's getting harder and harder.

If US data begins to slow markedly in the coming weeks, as our US economics team suspects, the dollar is likely come under renewed pressure.

It adds near-term upside risk for the dollar.

Friday's solid US payrolls headlines and strength in average earnings growth have boosted Fed tightening expectations further.

Moreover, with a fair amount of Fed tightening now priced in, the US currency remains more vulnerable to downside surprises than upside surprises.

I think this is a sign that the market remains disproportionately sensitive to downside surprises in U.S. data as opposed to the upside, given how much (Fed rate hikes) is already priced in.

The yen continued to strengthen this morning at the expense of high yielding currencies such as Australian and New Zealand dollars as well as the US dollar.

We suspect that the end of the Fed tightening cycle as policy tightening continues in the key low-yield economies will leave the dollar increasingly exposed to structural vulnerabilities in the second quarter.

We see strength in energy-related flows into the country, which underpins the Canadian dollar.

Short term, it is good to buy the currency on dips.

While a hike in May remains fully priced, prospects for tightening beyond that have been marked down.

There's more to the dollar weakness this week than just an adjustment in interest rates.

The dollar needs a good global growth backdrop to remain well supported.

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