29 ordspråk av Daragh Maher

Daragh Maher

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The more hawkish rhetoric we've had from the ECB and talk of the next move in interest rates being up is protecting the euro a little. The problem the market has is that it's tougher talk, but action is still some way away.

The rise in output prices ... will not ruffle the doves unduly when the Monetary Policy Committee meets next month to decide on interest rates.

The rise in output prices ... will not ruffle the doves unduly when the MPC meets next month to decide on interest rates.

Given the Bank of England's apparent wariness about the accuracy of this initial (GDP) estimate, it is questionable whether it will have much of a bearing on policy decisions.

There is a reluctance to push the euro/dollar higher because of riots in France and pressure from euro zone finance ministers not to raise rates.

The language from the ECB suggests they are not promising to do anything but they are not promising not to do anything either. The market will seize on anything that suggests a greater chance of a December rate hike.

The market was reluctant to push the euro above $1.2150 and we've seen it slowly come down from there during European trading.

I'd be a bit nervous about the pound's rally recently. We've not seen enough evidence of a pickup in growth and the focus is still on the next rate cut, which I think we'll get in February.

Although growth and inflation have tracked somewhat below the forecasts made in the (November) Inflation Report, the magnitude has not been seen as sufficient to warrant a fine-tuning on the rate front.

There are concerns that the revival in euro zone business confidence has been driven by the external sector, which could be undermined if the euro keeps on rising.

If the BOJ can deliver an exit strategy without creating undue political friction, it could be the catalyst for some associated recovery in the yen, a move that will only be amplified, the more stretched the speculative market allows itself to become.

We are expecting a reasonably soft number, which could undo some small dollar gains we have seen against European currencies.

Certainly, the tone of the Inflation Report did not hint at such a pronounced division within the central bank, but rather one where the majority is content to overlook shortfalls in economic activity in an environment where inflation is tracking close to target and expected to continue doing so over the forecast horizon.

There is a big hangover from soft U.S. data we had yesterday which worked in the direction of dollar weakness.

The yen also got a boost from the China story because the yen is a yuan proxy.

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