11 ordspråk av Darren Gibbs

Darren Gibbs

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It is a reminder of just how far these markets have moved that even the savage fall in silver has merely taken us back to where we started the month. It would take more broad-based weakness to suggest ... that a more sustained correction is under way.

He hopes that if he raises rates in December, combined with all this talk, then that would be enough.

It's not hard to understand why business confidence surveys report significant pessimism.

It all looks pretty disappointing for the Reserve Bank.

We are seeing significant investment. The rate of addition to the capital stock is as great if not greater than anything we have seen in the past 20 years.

There doesn't seem to be any evidence that inflation is accelerating. In terms of when the bank can cut interest rates, we are still looking at sometime in the second half of the year.

They've made very good profits over the last four or five years. They've had a good run, so they're well-placed to take a hit.

But we don't think this language quarrels with the consensus view of financial markets - and our view - that an easing cycle will most likely begin in September.

Even if the bank is starting to see data moving in the right direction, I don't think they are anywhere near easing, so they don't want to give the market any excuse to rally further.

It will be a while yet before we are printing better numbers.

This concern suggests it will take a lot of strength to get the Fed to tighten beyond 5 per cent.

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