17 ordspråk av Daryl Kimball

Daryl Kimball

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In Congress, this one clearly crosses party lines. The bottom line is this will not come out of Congress the way it came in.

All the United States gets from a nonproliferation standpoint are a few more civilian energy production reactors under safeguards. But it's meaningless, given that India's weapons production capacity will soar in the coming years.

There is every reason to believe that India and the United States will work side by side in the years to come. However, the nuclear cooperation proposal should not be the linchpin of U.S.-Indian relations, and if Congress acts in ways to address the deal's proliferation risks, bilateral relations will still prosper and the nuclear nonproliferation system will not unravel.

The negotiations for the agreement would take a substantial amount of time. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns has been telling people on the Capitol Hill (where US Congress and Senate are) that it will be a year or so.

What this suggests is that we need more of a robust and effective diplomatic strategy.

The next step is not clear. If the United States pushes for stronger actions against Iran, these targeted political and economic sanctions, and the Russians and the Chinese resist, then it is quite possible that the Security Council will be deadlocked. They will not be able to take any action. At the same time, that kind of scenario might lead some in the United States to argue that the Bush administration should take actions on its own. So we are moving in a very delicate phase here.

If the Indians mean what they say (about not testing), they should have no quibble with this provision.

Even the most concerned and skeptical of intelligence agencies now estimate that Iran is nearly a decade away from developing a nuclear weapon.

What you see here is the U.S. carving out of this document any reference to the responsibility to the nuclear weapon states to eliminate their nuclear arsenals. And that is going to make it all the more difficult to strengthen an already beleaguered nuclear nonproliferation system because other states are less likely to foreclose their nuclear options if the United States and others continue to pursue theirs.

For Iran, nuclear technology is a source of national pride and a demonstration of its political and technological independence from its former colonial masters, This is much more complicated than a simple economic and energy calculation.

What seems rather fanciful about this project is that the fuel-supply aspect appears contingent on proving some highly advanced technology. They're using this as a way to sell reprocessing technology rather than as a way to solve the problem of fuel supply, and that's troubling.

They say, 'we're within the treaty, we're within our rights'.

I don't think that China and Russia, at the moment, are going to support or even allow a decision to impose meaningful political or economic sanctions against Iran to go through. And that's not necessarily because Russia and China have a strong economic relationship with Iran, but because they fear, I believe, the rapid escalation of this crisis.

The bottom line is that this deal would allow India to significantly increase its nuclear weapons arsenal and provides precious little safeguarding. This is a nonproliferation nothing-burger, and Congress will see it as that if they look carefully.

This is a highly complex deal and on balance it is not in the national security interests of the US. It will damage the nuclear non proliferation regime.

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