90 ordspråk av David Kelly

David Kelly

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A lot of American businesses are still fighting the last recession as opposed to gearing up for the next expansion. That process could take a few months, so we could still see some ugly numbers from the labor market for another month or two.

The American consumer really went spending in the fourth quarter in an extraordinary way, and what we're seeing here is confirmation of that trend.

We saw companies push up output strongly without increasing labor costs at all. As orders come in, they will have to increase their total employment. Unless economic growth slows very rapidly, the unemployment rate should begin to move down in the next few months.

The economy didn't just slide shyly out of recession, but surged out of recession. The reason is all the stimulus applied to the economy after Sept. 11. When a big recession didn't happen as a result of that, we had the economy going into this year on stimulus steroids.

The single most significant number is the inventory number. The rebuilding of inventories hasn't even started yet. When they do, it will be a major source of additional stimulus to the economy.

I think the recovery is too strong to be a jobless recovery. But it is a close call.

This elevated growth rate in the economy should prevent a replay of the jobless recovery. If we have two strong quarters of growth, then employment will start to show decent gains in the third quarter.

The unemployment rate will come down slowly because of tremendous productivity gains, but I don't doubt the strength of final demand.

This is actually a case where the numbers are where you want them to be. Inflation's about two percent, not going up or down -- this is the comfortable middle. The American economy has other problems, but this isn't one of them.

Productivity can act as a natural thermostat for inflation and prevent it from becoming dangerously high or low.

The manufacturing sector is so productive that even with a rebound in production and orders, we still have, at best, flat employment. This is encouraging, but manufacturing employment remains a sore point in the American economy.

In many cases, people who've been laid off in manufacturing should not look to manufacturing to replace their jobs. It's not going to happen.

The reason spending dropped in January was a big fall in auto sales. I don't think this tells us much that's new -- it's consistent with an economy still growing in second or third gear.

I'm glad it wasn't worse. I wouldn't say the job market is out of intensive care yet, but if we see a pickup in retail sales and a pickup in business spending in the next few months, the effects [of recent weak economic growth] should be done by the third quarter.

$11 billion of the $18 billion drop in inventories was in manufacturing, and there's an element of that which isn't a matter of U.S. factories humming along [to re-stock shelves]. In many cases, there simply isn't any U.S. factory any more, and some of this may be just a permanent reduction in inventories.

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