29 ordspråk av Derek Halpenny

Derek Halpenny

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The dollar has depreciated sharply against the euro and more modestly against the yen with dollar sentiment deteriorating as fears increase over the outlook for the US economy.

The dollar remains underpinned against both the euro and the yen ahead of the key employment report from the US.

There is no more obvious way to play interest rate differentials than buying dollar/yen.

The yen is being supported by a liquidation of short positions.

Fukui has said nothing new, he has pretty much repeated what the market already knows and hasn't changed the timing of a shift on quantitative easing.

The market is now beginning to look beyond the potential first step in terms of a shift from quantitative easing to interest rate targeting.

Given that the employment report will be released on Friday, the appetite for selling the dollar may be limited especially with the consensus for non-farm payrolls gradually creeping higher from the original reading of 200,000.

Yield is still very important for Japanese investors and it's nearly a guaranteed event that we'll see a pick up in purchases of foreign assets.

One subject he may tackle is that maybe short-term rates need to be that bit higher.

Towards the end of the year, we do see the dollar turning down as it loses its rate support.

The dollar remains in recovery mode after last week's sharp sell-off.

Given the rhetoric we've seen from the government today, the pressure, beyond moving away from quantitative easing will be very, very much on the BOJ to maintain a zero interest rate structure.

Any shift in policy on Thursday from the BOJ is very likely to be accompanied by a strong commitment to maintaining zero interest rates. There is no trade more obvious than selling the yen against the dollar.

Any shift in policy on Thursday from the BOJ is very likely to be accompanied by a strong commitment to maintaining zero interest rates. Yield is still very important for Japanese investors and it's nearly a guaranteed event that we'll see a pick up in purchases of foreign assets.

Following previous moves by the Federal Reserve, the market pretty much immediately looked ahead and had a confident view on the interest-rate outlook for the next two meetings. That's been a supportive factor for the dollar. Now it seems to be different.

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