105 ordspråk av Diane Swonk

Diane Swonk

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This is a very unusual recession in that the consumer did not collapse and incomes are in the black,

The Fed will sit on its hands. There's really no reason to do otherwise. The economy's falling into place as the Fed thought -- it's in a soft spot, with some light at the end of the tunnel.

After the fireworks we've seen coming out of Washington on Friday and Monday, I think the Fed would like to be the least bit of news this week.

More and more retailers are feeding on a smaller consumer pie, and many are going away hungry, ... What Wall Street Wants from the Retail Industry.

The bottom line is, you're going to be waiting in more lines.

Not only are retailers doing more with less, like every other large corporation, and taking advantage of six fewer days in the shopping season, but they are actually hiring less this holiday shopping season, so there's fewer people on the floors actually helping consumers out.

Even more than the early 1990s, this is a jobless recovery. Productivity growth is playing twice the role it played in the early 1990s in driving economic gains, which means less payrolls growth.

The bottom line is the hiring is not going to be there.

There's no question that, given the right circumstances, the Fed wouldn't hesitate to spend 175 basis points. But they really have to have a good reason to put an insurance policy out there.

The Fed wants to see whether this July data, this bad economic data, was an aberration, and two months will make it clearer. If they see more instability in financial markets, they will take it lower.

The Fed will wait to see at least another month's worth of economic data before it makes a decision to ease. They want to see whether or not [weak] July data were more of an aberration or a trend -- two months will give them more cover to ease further.

It's hard to kill this darn consumer, isn't it? Anyone who is losing sleep over the consumer is losing sleep over the wrong thing.

The Fed doesn't want to be dealing with the old economy, with deficits returning. They're trying to have some impact on decisions made now without getting us into permanent problems.

This is not much of a surprise. We've got a Fed saying growth is strong, but they're still hedging against a downturn. This is a Fed waiting to see the whites of the eyes of recovery.

I don't think we're gong to get any more at all.

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