149 ordspråk av Doug Porter

Doug Porter

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It's important that the U.S. markets are quietly turning forward themselves. There seem to be much better underlying sentiment for the tech stocks in the U.S. as well, so that's a big plus for the Canadian market.

This is a real story of a split market ... some of the tech stocks have been weak for most of the day, but generally most of the market has fared quite well.

What's quite encouraging about some of the strength we've seen in recent weeks, is that we're almost seeing a rotation form one sector to another. In other words, while industrial products and technology have been the clear winner this year, there have been a number of supporting actors.

As has been the story for most of this month, again on Monday it's largely a technology story.

The non-manufacturing ISM was strong across the board. There was only a modest drop in the prices paid index and most of the indices related to growth stayed quite strong -- taken together with the ISM factory report on Tuesday it suggests the U.S. economy stayed quite solid in October.

The low jobless rate, the steady upward creep in wage increases and the solid employment gain will all help convince the Bank of Canada it is on the right path by continuing to tighten policy.

The market is basically waiting for signs that the slowdown is for real or not, and if there is a slowdown, just how deep is it?

Some evidence has emerged that inflation is starting to pick up, and there's concern that the Fed's rate increases may not have been enough so far to keep that inflation contained, ... It suggests that we may see more aggressive rate hikes rather than the gradual baby steps we've seen.

The bottom line is that as long as equities remain aloft, there is precious little outside of Fed tightening to cool growth, ... And that tightening may need to be much more aggressive than the market currently expects to bring (economic) growth closer to the Fed's comfort zone of around 3.5 percent.

When the strategist at Goldman Sachs reduced her recommended weighting on equities it sent the market into the red right off the bat, and ended up lower pretty much across the board in Canada and the U.S.,

It was Bell and Nortel again,

Right now there's concern again reemerging in the market that the Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) is going to become more aggressive,

It was a similar story to what we saw in 1999 when it was dominated by a vary narrow group of stocks, Bell and Nortel, but outside of that there was quite a bit of weakness,

[March's report] didn't meet the markets' worst fears, and on those grounds I view it as somewhat bullish, ... I don't really see any discernable sign that job growth is slowing. The underlying trend is still extremely robust job growth, which will lead the Fed to raise rates again.

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