25 ordspråk av Douglas Porter

Douglas Porter

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Canadian consumer spending is finally poised to hit the brakes after a spectacular run earlier this year,

Pretty much everyone, as well as their Uncle Bob, is expecting the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates by 25 basis points [a quarter of a percentage point] to 3 per cent at tomorrow's announcement.

While the economic data have been all over the place in recent weeks, there are no obvious signs that the economy is cracking in the face of record energy prices. Indeed, the export and production data have been surprisingly perky.

This points out that the labor market remains as tight as ever.

[The report indicates] consumer spending is gearing back, ... It is very much in line with sagging in consumer confidence in recent months. Although it does not suggest that consumer spending is falling apart, it is losing a lot of steam.

These solid results suggest that the economy actually had a fair bit of momentum heading into 2003.

The thing about the quarterly figures is they're more driven by what took place at the end of the previous quarter and the start of the current quarter than what happened at end of the current quarter. These numbers tell us spending had a little more momentum heading into 2003 than the quarterly figures would indicate.

While it's a bit of a surprise, the slightly downbeat news on confidence can be explained by the ongoing weakness in employment, and perhaps consumers are a little concerned about the backup in mortgage rates. But while they're becoming less confident, they're still buying -- the latest sales numbers still look good.

I suspect there will be enough positive news in other areas to persuade consumers there is a light at the end of the tunnel and that the economy is moving to better times, but it will be a gradual process, and confidence may be flat in the next couple of months.

It's a red flag. Any time the nation's largest retailer stumbles a bit, it's a warning sign.

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