31 ordspråk av Eric Lascelles

Eric Lascelles

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The most notable (change) is the insertion of the word 'modest.' And that's been interpreted in a dovish fashion.

Perhaps part of the story for the Canadian dollar is the bump in oil prices and these wholesale numbers, but that's not all that evident in the fixed-income market.

We did have a weak University of Michigan confidence index ... but on the flip side, you had the producer price index, which came in a little strong.

The business sector in Canada continues to grow at a moderate pace.

There's no question manufacturers are paying the piper in some sense, in that they did get away with a lot over the 1990s when the Canadian dollar was weak.

Most people would argue the Canadian dollar is fairly valued somewhere in the 80-85 U.S. cent range, and we're not far from that. So I suspect the conditions manufacturers are facing right now are perhaps more reflective of the true long-term type of conditions they should expect.

Inflation isn't out of hand anyway in Canada. The market may think the Bank of Canada will move less aggressively. It will be a surprise if the bank moves beyond 4 percent.

It does look like a U.S. dollar story. There doesn't seem to be any obvious fundamental story.

We've been told before that this is the Bank of Canada's favorite measure. So, the Bank of Canada, without question, is going to sit up quite closely and look at this release.

The commodity play is a big part of the story there.

The Bank of Canada may look closely at this number and sit up and think whether they should go further. There is a probability they may go beyond 4 percent.

There is huge strength in employment ? It shows continued strength in the labor market, which supports the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada may look closely at this number and sit up and think about whether they should increase interest rates further. There is probability they may go beyond 4 percent.

(The report is) a testament to the fact that the Canadian manufacturing sector continues to confront a wide spectrum of challenges, including elevated input prices and a muscular Canadian dollar.

I don't think this is going to cause the Bank of Canada to differ in its ways. We still think 4 percent (overnight rate) is the likely peak for them.

Today's twin reports provide a further excuse for the Bank of Canada to halt at 4.0 percent after next week's hike.

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