187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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[The CPI number] doesn't have a big influence in Fed thinking, ... This keeps [policy makers] comfortable where they are.

[By the fourth quarter], you will continue to have worries about corporate governance issues, a weak stock market and a buildup to war in Iraq leading to higher oil prices -- a lot of negative psychological forces in the economy that will make it very hard to sustain growth going forward,

Even with a resolution to the situation in Iraq, the economy will still be suffering from some fairly significant headwinds,

Before the war, consumers were doing OK, but the corporate sector didn't want to get going, ... We're back to the same environment. You see it in surveys of CEOs -- they just aren't convinced that now's the time to start expanding their business.

In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record,

Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.

The indicator that economists use to predict the housing market is the affordability index -- the ratio of monthly income to monthly mortgage payments, ... As the economy picks up, the typical family's monthly income will slowly accelerate, but the monthly mortgage cost is quickly jumping, much faster than income could possibly move.

We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy, ... The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.

You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year, ... To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.

This large inflow is an important prop for the Treasury market, helping keep yields in their current low trading range, ... Not only is the inflow large relative to new Treasury supply, it may also help stabilize the market when it comes under pressure. If investors start to shy away from the U.S. market, the dollar comes under downward pressure and the Asian central banks pile in to support the U.S. market.

Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out, ... The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.

They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish, ... Being 'patient' sounds a little less like they're keeping rates on hold than a 'considerable period' -- though you'd need to study a dictionary closely to figure that out.

They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish,

This has been a fundamental problem with the Fed's whole approach to policy making, ... By changing their language so frequently, they make it impossible to figure out what they're doing.

It's true there's been a shift of income distribution, with a lot of income gains accruing to upper income individuals. The labor market is paying a bigger and bigger premium for being well educated, ... At the other end of the distribution, if you look at Joe Six-Pack, you've seen a big decline in big paying, low skill jobs in manufacturing.

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