187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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Net net, we think the risks are tilted toward a surprisingly strong gain in [Friday's] report,

If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.

Payrolls were well below the whisper number, so there's been a big sigh of relief in the market,

Even with this dip, the unemployment rate is still about a percentage point above the level where it might threaten inflation. That means there's plenty of wiggle room for the Fed on policy. They're going to be patient and not change the wording of their statement next week.

I don't think this should alter anybody's views about the Fed in a major way.

We've gone from a period where there was a reasonable chance the Fed might cut rates just four months ago to one in which the Fed is very much comfortably just sitting on hold for now.

Everyone is all zeroed in on the consumer now, but the truth is that the consumer isn't the driver now. Confidence is picking up, but still at average levels. Wage growth is slow and the bulk of the tax cut is already in place. Finally, with all the debt people have taken out over the past several years the burden of paying monthly bills is leaving less for discretionary spending.

At every stage in the past three years, employment has disappointed relative to overall activity. It's a chronic issue, and there's been a tendency for economists to hope this will finally be the month when improvement occurs. But I have no reason to believe it will.

The Fed is going to take a cautious approach (because) they're worried about how the consumer will handle higher interest rates, ... We've had recovery nurtured on super-low interest rates. They don't want to shock the patient by withdrawing the medicine too quickly.

You've had obviously a rise in gasoline prices, which is the visible price in the economy, ... There's (also) a tendency of the public to look at the unemployment rate that actually rose in March, while Wall Street looks at payrolls (which showed a large jump in the number of people working.)

They're voting with their wallets and they're spending. There's always a concern that people just don't like what they're seeing, but they are still buying.

In total, we learned very little about the future of the economy or Fed policy except that the Fed is not ready to hike rates in the very near future.

I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.

I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.

The bond market went into this report looking for disaster. I think there's a sense of relief in the bond market.

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