187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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We think the ISM services number is one of the worst monthly pieces of data there are. On a month-to-month basis, it has no correlation with service sector employment, and on a quarter to quarter basis, it has no correlation with service sector gross domestic product.

Companies have been able to maintain incredible productivity growth for a low-growth economy. It does look like firms are finding ways to use technology and make do with fewer workers.

The third quarter was the sweet spot for profits from an economic perspective. You had this pickup in growth, but you didn't have the pickup in costs. In terms of growth, this is the best quarter we're going to see.

Coming after the energy shocks and Katrina, it's a remarkable spring-back. The economy seems to have an underlying resilience.

It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.

Housing prices tend to turn very slowly, and that delays whatever impact they might have on the economy.

Because growth is looking good and financial conditions are good, they'll keep moving up. But they're close to the end.

There is a history both in appointments under the Bush administration and the Fed chairmanship itself of people off the list being picked. Bush does seem to have a proclivity to pick people with a more business background for his economic positions,

The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,

The reason the recovery was so feeble was you still had these hangover effects from the real estate and banking sectors, ... Real estate was still reeling from excess capacity and the whole thrift industry had been decimated by bad loans.

The markets are going to be a bit uncertain as to how to react, given that the Fed is waiting in the wings, ... They are all going to be looking ahead toward the FOMC meeting to see what the Fed's verdict is on the data rather than reacting as it comes out. They'll be sort of holding their breath.

Clearly the new focus of Fed attention is the stock market, ... The Fed is not focused on many of the indicators equity analysts emphasize. Instead, the Fed's focus is on aggregate wealth creation in the market.

If we have an economy that functions O.K., with a little help from the Fed, in that case gridlock is quite good for the market,

You probably want to subtract about two-tenths of a percent from first-quarter GDP growth. But that's looking like very old history, with the Fed having eased twice since the first quarter, ... From the market's perspective, you feel like you're in a different world already. The first quarter looks very distant, indeed.

Clearly, Corporate America is still in hunker-down mode, reluctant to increase budgets for equipment and slow about increasing employment, ... That puts a weight around the neck of the recovery and keeps it at a moderate pace.

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