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Frank Nothaft

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Renewed concern over the threat of inflation pushed up long-term mortgage rates, while the most recent Fed statement caused short-term rates to float upwards,

Although mortgage rates are beginning to rise, we have yet to experience much of a slow down in the housing market.

Looking ahead into the spring home buying season, we don't expect mortgage rates to rise too much or too quickly in the near term. As a result, housing activity should stay on track for a strong 2005.

Mortgage rates slipped this week on news that job creation in March came out much lower than had been expected,

Although mortgage rates will rise this year, we expect the 2005 annual average will be below levels recorded just three years ago.

Given the current economy, mortgage rates can only rise so much in a short period of time,

While we still expect mortgage rates to rise to perhaps as high as 6.50 percent by the end of the year, that escalation in rates will be gradual and restrained.

Interest rates in general have been oscillating with every piece of economic news released lately,

The market was disappointed on the news of lower consumer confidence and lower orders for durable goods,

These numbers suggest that the Fed will remain restrained in its practice of raising short term rates, which may be an indication the Fed doesn't see inflation to be as great a threat as the markets previously had thought it would be.

And when inflation is thought to be in check, mortgage rates naturally drift downward as they did this week.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, purchase applications hit a record high last week, and this can be directly attributed to continuing low mortgage rates.

The bond market isn't exactly sure how fast or slow the economy will expand in the long term and thus bond yields have remained remarkable low. Hence, we expect mortgage rates to remain relatively low for the time being,

It is remarkable how mortgage rates have remained so low for so long,

The Fed has been very successful in wringing inflation out of the expectations of investors, ... Today's (rate environment) feels very much like the mid-60s.

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