140 ordspråk av Gary Thayer

Gary Thayer

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We probably won't see good (employment) numbers in the next couple of months because of the loss of jobs in the Gulf Coast region,

The Fed will probably not put a lot of emphasis on this data and instead will be looking more at the economy after the hurricane.

Unfortunately, this is pre-Katrina data and may not reflect what we're likely to see in the next couple of months.

The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.

The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.

If we'd had a substantial decline in the dollar against the Chinese currency we'd have probably seen a substantial rise in the price of some of the items that we buy from China.

The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the non-petroleum items ... so it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed.

[Still, the decision caught a few economists off guard.] I agree with the Fed's view that the hurricane doesn't pose a persistent threat to the economy, ... But I think that if the Fed had held rates steady, the recovery could've been a little smoother, maybe a little faster.

Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.

The drop in August is just a pullback from that earlier surge in spending.

I really don't read a lot into [the dissent]; it doesn't mean that's the direction policy is going to head. Some people interpret the risks differently than others, and that's what's happened this time.

These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.

It looks like we will have about a half-million lost jobs from the hurricanes and we have now seen the lion's share of that.

It probably doesn't mean we don't see another rate increase, but it suggests that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation is not getting out of control.

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