13 ordspråk av Gavin Friend

Gavin Friend

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The hike... was in line with expectations, but by raising inflation and growth forecasts for 2006/2007, the window of opportunity for further rate hikes remains open.

Absolute rates are still higher in Canada and it's a very strong performer when commodities are booming. It would be my pick for the currency to bet on based on higher oil prices, even more so than Norway.

All the signals are pointing to a weaker dollar and today's data could precipitate more selling. There's no doubt that the Fed is close to the end.

It's difficult to argue against a stronger dollar. The Fed has clearly telegraphed it will continue raising the rate through the year.

We're expecting just two rate increases by the end of next year. That's not enough to help the euro.

The U.K. economy will probably perform under trend again next year. The pound will fall early next year.

I don't think the market will push far before the Fed statement. If they remove the sentence implying some further measured tightening then the dollar is at risk.

The U.S. labor market continues to tighten and the implication is the Fed will need to raise rates. Anything above 250,000 jobs today and the dollar will continue to push higher.

There is a risk today (Thursday) of euro/dollar trading weaker and of a test of the resistance area around 1.2200/1.2170 dollars, particularly if the US data is better than expected.

Strong employment growth in connection with a further decline of unemployment rates could further strengthen (US) rate rise expectations and cause the euro to test 1.20 dollars once again.

Most of us expect him to reiterate the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation and as long as he does that the dollar should hold up relatively well. This could be the trigger for the next move higher in the dollar.

If these expectations are not at least confirmed by the meeting minutes, market participants might feel inclined to square their dollar longs.

At present there is a probability of just under 70 percent of the Fed raising interest rates to 5.0 percent by May.

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