28 ordspråk av Greg Gibbs

Greg Gibbs

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The currency and rate futures markets are pricing in a rate hike by year-end and two by the middle of next year and this is why the euro has strengthened, especially against the yen,

The market is expecting a fairly upbeat assessment by Greenspan. This is one reason why the euro is not trading significantly higher against the dollar but is in a range,

The Fed is probably going to hold to see how the economy plays out. There's even some concern the U.S. economy had already started to slow down before the hurricane. If that's the case, it's quite bearish for the dollar.

It's quite difficult to get bullish on the Australian dollar when the U.S. dollar is rising on interest-rate differentials.

The Australian dollar has underperformed because there is a feeling it's past its best days in terms of a high-yielding currency.

The currency and rate futures markets are pricing in a rate hike by year-end and two by the middle of next year and this is why the euro has strengthened, especially against the yen.

The sharp rally in the yen last week may not last. There is chatter about an impending policy tightening by the BOJ, but this is still around six months away at least.

Strong cyclical equities are often associated with greater global growth confidence, risk-seeking behavior and a stronger Australian dollar.

This number is quite a shock. This is a short-term negative for the currency and I'm surprised it hasn't fallen further.

Obviously the market was well prepared for a change. Maybe the market is expecting some more calming comments from Fukui.

The market is currently factoring in rate hikes toward the end of the year of as much as 50 basis points. That's about right, considering the kind of strong economic numbers we have got out of Japan.

There is some kind of a shift under way, with the large move over the last couple of days testing the bottom of its range for the last year.

The Australian dollar has been dragged down by the New Zealand dollar. Both currencies may well go through several months of under-performance.

The RBNZ has been talking the currency down for over a year and certainly won't discourage further falls. A negative trend in the currency has taken hold and the presumption that the economy will struggle this year, without a much lower currency, will keep it trending lower.

Based on our sense of positioning, excessively bearish sentiment, and risks that the economy does not slow as rapidly as hoped, we see greater upside potential for New Zealand dollar than further downside in the next month or two.

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