23 ordspråk av Henry Willmore

Henry Willmore

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And the main reason for that will be the job cuts that enabled firms to do a more effective job of holding down labor costs.

It will be worth the trouble for investors seeking a turn in momentum to squint carefully at the data and notice that profits did not fall as much in the second quarter as they did in the first.quarter.

I think we'll be fortunate if a quarter of that materializes. The change in the outlook for fiscal policy is remarkable.

The more significant (weekly jobless) data will be coming in on Thursday and (the monthly employment data) on Friday.

On balance, I'd say the numbers this morning were more good than bad.

I wouldn't give this a lot of weight and say this is leading the economy. It's sort of catching up to what has been strong economic activity for several months now.

This move is conservative and the fact they did not touch the discount rate reflects that. But since the move was taken to calm some of the recent financial market panic, this may not have done that.

The thing that jumps out is the downward revisions on the data, which were pretty substantial and give you a much weaker picture than expected. I think these revisions reinforce the case for a (half-percentage) point cut at (Tuesday's Fed) meeting.

Given these considerations, we believe the Fed is anxious to bring the current easing cycle to an end and will do so as soon as the data point to some economic improvement, however modest.

This is a clear shift in U.S. policy and it probably indicates that the U.S. has received some concessions from Japan.

The Fed's problem is that the fed funds rate itself has very little effect on the economy. We continue to see movements in financial markets that basically officiate the Fed's attempt to slow things down.

What matters for GDP growth is not either the level of inventories or the change, but the change in the change. That's going to be quite positive. Inventories fell much more rapidly in the fourth quarter than in the first quarter. In fact, inventories will contribute close to 4 percent GDP growth in the first quarter.

Previously the market had taken out any risk of a second-quarter tightening by the Fed. With this statement, we see that's not a risk to be discounted.

We should start to see better numbers in the May data. If we don't see improvement, it would be much more worrisome than the recent weakness and might inspire the Fed to cut in June. My own view is that we will see better numbers.

[It's] good news because liquidation of inventories sets the stage for stronger orders, stronger production and stronger employment growth down the road.

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