114 ordspråk av John Kilduff

John Kilduff

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Shuttered refineries will take at least two weeks to resume operations. Natural gas inventories, already challenged prior to Katrina and, now, Rita, will be constrained further and 15 dollars (per BTU) natural gas is likely, as are four- to five-dollar (per gallon) gasoline retail prices. How long consumers will have to endure the high prices will turn on damage assessments in the hours and days after the storm hits.

Remember, the power outages are what bedeviled recovery efforts after Katrina,

It's the uncertainty on the storm's track. We're still quite a nervous market, and a substantial fear premium has already been priced in at this point, ... We're hanging on every report.

The EPA waiver was a big move,

The moderate weather is really helping push prices lower, ... There are no signs that OPEC will cut back on output, which has jumped to near records. As long as the oil keeps coming and demand languishes, I see no reason for prices to rise.

The LOOP is incredibly important right now. If it is not up soon there will be a spillover for refineries in the Midwest, which could run out of crude quickly. This could lead to gasoline shortages in the weeks ahead.

The EPA waiver was a big move.

A large swath of U.S. demand was taken out of the market as a result of Katrina. The EIA report shows that U.S. demand growth will decline by 40 percent. Overall inventories are still healthy.

Demand destruction fears are trumping fears about damage to oil facilities. It's not just Katrina that is hurting demand. High prices have strained economies, especially in Asia, and demand is being curtailed as a result.

Remember, the power outages are what bedeviled recovery efforts after Katrina.

The IEA report reminds us that there could be a supply problem in the fourth quarter. Storm damage and the chemical workers strike in France are going to hurt supply. Given the levels we have fallen from, prices are beginning to look like a bargain.

We're going to keep on marching higher here. The next stop is the $41.15 it hit on the heels of Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and from there I would expect another spike higher. Once hostilities ensue I wouldn't be surprised to see $50 or $60 print.

We will be looking to see if we can get below $59.30, which is key support. In the near term $56.30 is the target. It's close to the July low and if we can break below that we will next be looking at the $46 area, which is the May low.

There's pre-holiday buying taking place. In Iraq and elsewhere things are percolating. The market will be shut four days, and in this geopolitical situation it makes sense to cover positions and bets.

This condition will last through the New Year and has given the technical picture a decidedly negative bias. Any bargain hunters have certainly been given pause by yesterday's action, although the low volume probably exacerbated the downdraft.

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