32 ordspråk av Jonathan Loynes

Jonathan Loynes

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August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected,

August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected, but still leave public borrowing on track to overshoot Brown's forecasts this year significantly,

We still expect that the consumer slowdown will prompt more interest rate cuts.

August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected.

August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected, but still leave public borrowing on track to overshoot Brown's forecasts this year significantly.

The MPC has acted early and aggressively. The soft landing scenario is still on track.

Italy is going to remain at the back of the performance tables. We should see a pick-up in growth this year, but it is coming off a very low base. It is a cyclical recovery rather than any kind of real structural improvement.

We remain comfortable with our view that interest rates will fall further this year as output remains below trend and inflation falls back below its target.

While the stronger-than-expected rise in British GDP put a further dent in the prospects of an interest rate cut in February, we still expect the combination of sluggish growth and falling inflation this year to prompt a modest loosening of monetary policy.

Indeed, it may only have been a reluctance to surprise the markets that stopped the committee from cutting rates (last week).

It would have been better to have left the growth forecast unchanged, but that would have lowered the inflation forecast to below its target. They are having to work hard not to have to cut interest rates.

A very weak report, casting doubt on the Monetary Policy Committee's assumption that household spending will grow in line with its long-term average over the next three years and boosting the chances of a rate cut.

The ECB may feel that the time is right to conclude that the risks to growth are now more equally balanced. Without a corresponding softening of the perceived upside risk to inflation, this would be seen as a strong signal that it is preparing to lift rates further.

Alongside the gathering momentum evident in the euro zone economy, the virtual confirmation of a hike in March supports our view that ECB interest rates will rise further than markets are anticipating.

The stronger tone of recent data was clearly enough to prompt most members of the MPC to vote to keep interest rates on hold today, but we would not be surprised if the decision was rather closer than the markets seemed to think.

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