32 ordspråk av Jonathan Loynes

Jonathan Loynes

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A dovish Inflation Report tomorrow and soft retail sales on Thursday could open the door to a March rate cut.

January's UK retail sales figures confirm the evidence from the surveys that the pick-up in spending growth over Christmas was short-lived.

We are not wholly convinced that this is the start of a period of stronger and more healthily balanced economic growth, however.

Looking ahead, rising gas and electricity bills could keep inflation close to current levels for the next few months. But we expect further falls in core inflation and fading energy effects to push the headline rate well below target in the second half of the year.

Interest rates are very likely to remain on hold for a seventh consecutive month in March, it being the only month in which the MPC has never changed rates in either direction since taking control in 1997.

It just seems to me that although the stock market has already risen quite strongly, if you look at how quickly the macroeconomic indicators have risen, there is still some scope for the market to rise even further.

There are no very significant indicators that the market is getting too expensive.

I think in the near term there will be more upward pressure,

Job creation is concentrated in the service sector, ... High-growth areas such as financial services and information technology require skilled workers.

The downturn in the High Street might be past its worst, but spending is still growing at pretty modest rates.

Retailers are playing a cat and mouse game, ... they try to build their margins back up, but then have to reverse price increases.

I don't think he can put off the inevitable. Sometime in the next two years he will have to raise taxes but he won't want to leave it too late in the political cycle.

The sharp pick-up in inflation pressures evident in December's data is likely to be temporary and should not concern the [Bank of England] too much.

To hit Mr Brown's forecast now, quarterly growth would have to average around 1.0 percent in the remaining three quarters which looks very unlikely.

Today's cuts add a bit of pressure, ... but they're not the key factor. We're at dramatically different stages of the economic cycle (from Europe), and there are perfectly good reasons for the MPC to lower rates aggressively regardless of events on the Continent.

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