37 ordspråk av Joshua Feinman

Joshua Feinman

Joshua Feinman föddes den 2 april 1971
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I think it's encouraging that three weeks in a row we've been below 400,000. I think it suggests the labor market may be strengthening a little bit.

[This] suggests that the little lull the economy went into in the second quarter may be ending and that the labor market may be strengthening a little bit as we head into summer.

The labor market's starting to improve a bit -- it's not great, but it's getting better.

The United States has been the engine of global growth for some time. It would behoove the world if other engines were to develop, but it doesn't look like that's happening. As long as that's the case, U.S. growth will mostly be determined by what happens here.

Companies have the wherewithal to pick up the pace of hiring and capital investment again, but I'm not sure they have the desire, for a variety of reasons -- including their outlook on future demand.

If the economy roars back, you can always take the cuts back. But suppose you're wrong on the other side, and the economy continues to languish? With the slack already in the markets, inflation is likely to move lower still.

It's a little bit analogous to the early 1990s, in that, when the Persian Gulf War ended then, the economy did not come storming back -- it took a while because it continued to work off its problems. Something similar could happen this time, though the economy is a little further along now in its process of unwinding than it was then.

The personal income tax cut could be a boost of $50 billion to disposable income, and some of that could be felt when they actually change the tax withholding schedule, which could be in the spring or summer. Then there might be a little bit of rebate check, too. All of this might be a little more of short-term shot in the arm than the dividend tax cut.

The irony is that in the 1970s and 1980s, we were trying to get to that world again. We're darn close to price stability now.

The economy needs stimulus now, so bring forward some [of the] tax cuts [scheduled for later years], but cancel the last piece scheduled to go into effect in 2008. That would help the short-term economy, and it's better for long-term fiscal probity.

The administration is likely to push for more fiscal stimulus, and this makes it a little more clear-cut, because O'Neill had been hesitant about that.

Businesses were liquidating inventory last fall at a frenetic pace and adding to weakness in the economy's production. It looks like the rate of inventory liquidation is starting to slow, and a basis is forming from that reduction for a rise in the economy.

Did firms have trouble making profits back in the 1950s and 1960s? ... No -- they were used to a low-inflation environment, and the cost side was used to that, and workers' expectations about wages were more attuned to that.

We need to keep in mind that this is the time of year when weekly fluctuations can be hard to seasonally adjust. We may need a few more weeks to sort it out. Overall, the readings we've been getting suggest the deterioration in the labor market is slowing down.

These numbers were worse than expected. But overall, the labor market is still deteriorating, but not at the rate it was after Sept. 11.

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