9 ordspråk av Juergen Michels

Juergen Michels

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The economy is going to accelerate but only at a moderate pace and that means the ECB won't be very quick to raise interest rates further.

The data from the German states suggests that the increase in inflation at the start of the year is lower than expected so that partly offsets the pressure for a rate rise.

For 2006, I see very strong German exports and increasing investment, but I don't think it will have a big impact on the labor market and that's why consumption will remain relatively weak.

We would expect the seasonally adjusted total to decline in the coming months, but there is not likely to be any major turnaround because companies are still restructuring and the structural problems on the labor market are still there.

German manufacturers have rather good support from the orders side. In addition, they reduced their debt and financing conditions have improved.

The labor market situation won't dramatically improve and oil prices are still a problem. Relatively weak consumption is one of the reasons why the German economy won't gather a lot of speed this year.

We'll see strong increases in consumption towards the end of the year because of the VAT effect. The World Cup will also play a role.

That will probably keep the ECB waiting until September, rather than going for a rate rise, as a done deal, every quarter.

Private consumption is likely to remain weak.

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