102 ordspråk av Ken Perkins

Ken Perkins

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I wouldn't read this at all as a shift in consumer trends. Discounters are benefiting from a weak economy and they have been taking market share from department stores.

April comps will reap the benefits of Easter holiday sales. But as usually is the case with March and April, it's best to view the two months on a combined basis. Retailers find themselves against a stiff 7.1 percent gain a year ago.

Is this just a blip on the radar? I think it could be. The economy seems to be snapping back. The third-quarter GDP number was a blowout number. I don't think it will be that great in the fourth quarter, but consumer spending will hold through the holidays. Also, retailers will be benefiting from easier comparisons in November and December.

On the economic front, there haven't been significant improvements in jobs and wage growth, and the comparable sales comparisons are only getting tougher. It sounds reasonable to expect big discounts this year. The macro factors would suggest it.

Weather transitioned from a major negative in May to a major positive in June.

As rates continue to rise, there's less ability for consumers to refinance and take money out of their houses.

Best Buy traditionally has been the primary player here and taking share very aggressively from some of the other players in the space, but Circuit City looks to have held their own here this holiday season. The discounters have tried to get into the space. Wal-Mart's been very aggressive in moving in there.

Retailers are facing slightly more difficult year-over-year [sales] comparisons [in February] and the weather is unlikely to be as cooperative over the next two months as it was in January.

Retailers racked up a terrific month, particularly relative to expectations.

There wasn't a lot of color offered in press releases this morning on this great performance, but given the number of retailers that indicated strong gift card sales over the holidays, it looks like there were some pretty strong gift card redemptions taking place in January. Warm weather appears to have helped drive traffic as well and it helped retailers sell spring merchandise at full price.

January was a one of the warmest months in over a 100 years. So that not only drove sales of spring clothing and other seasonal merchandise earlier than usual but it also probably stole some sales from February.

When you say a school and a district is going to be judged on this, and then it's not a valid test, that doesn't seem right.

You really have to take March and April as a package deal because of the 2 to 3 percentage point shift that usually takes place because of the Easter holiday.

This is the weakest monthly increase in same-store sales since November 2004.

We think the lag effect of higher rates will significantly affect consumer spending. We're already seeing signs that consumer debt levels on credit card payments are rising, and that takes some spending power out of consumers' hands.

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