102 ordspråk av Ken Perkins

Ken Perkins

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Sales really carried through at the end of the season, particularly for the mall-based stores. Some of the strength probably came from retailers really aggressively marketing and being really promotional.

I'm concerned that Wal-Mart could be the harbinger of some broader weakness. With everything they had going for them, Wal-Mart still came in at the low end of a not-very-aggressive plan. I wouldn't be surprised if we'll see more companies miss expectations than beat expectations.

I am very perplexed by these results. I had expected 50 percent of the 64 retailers that we track would have missed their sales forecasts. But two-third of that universe have beat so far.

That number may go up to 3.9 percent growth now.

April comps will reap the benefits of Easter holiday sales. But as usually is the case with March and April, it's best to view the two months on a combined basis. Retailers find themselves against a stiff 7.1 percent gain a year ago,

Is this just a blip on the radar? I think it could be, ... The economy seems to be snapping back. The third-quarter GDP number was a blowout number. I don't think it will be that great in the fourth quarter, but consumer spending will hold through the holidays. Also, retailers will be benefiting from easier comparisons in November and December.

All groups showed comparable sales up over 5 percent for the month, ... The economy is certainly an element of the upside surprises. We saw back-to-back quarters of GDP growth. People also anticipate a significant amount of fiscal spending particularly in an election year. This bodes well for consumer sentiment.

By and large, retailers kept inventories tight and gift card redemptions also boosted sales.

The deceleration in earnings growth is a significant concern. Techs are up against steep comparisons in the second half of this year and the first half of next year,

On the economic front, there haven't been significant improvements in jobs and wage growth, and the comparable sales comparisons are only getting tougher, ... It sounds reasonable to expect big discounts this year. The macro factors would suggest it.

The Conference Board's November consumer confidence Index fell in November for the fourth consecutive month and was noticeably weak among lower income consumers.

Given that Super Bowl is scheduled one week later this year, discounters that have significant food and beverage sales may see some sales transferred out of January into February.

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