19 ordspråk av Kevin Hawkins

Kevin Hawkins

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After the pre-Christmas upturn, we are now back to the reality of a tough, discount-driven retail market. The message from every sector of our industry is the same. The squeeze on consumer spending continues unabated. The economy badly needs a cut in interest rates.

We keep asking the bank where they think this growth is going to come from. With people increasingly worried about rising household bills, unless there is some stimulus from the bank itself, we are not going to see any substantial growth.

This is another example of an independent agency trimming its sails to the political climate.

These results underline yet again the continuing squeeze on consumer spending and, contrary to the Bank of England's expectations, there is no sign of an upturn.

A very useful increase in customer footfall in Central London has helped to generate this exceptional rate of growth. This in turn reflects the ongoing recovery from the events of last July which retailers will be doing their best to sustain.

I was in same situation last April at Clarks Hill. I was winning by 10 pounds on Saturday and had already won a boat. Then, instead of doing what the odds said to do, I went back and tried to catch another big fish and bombed out — and lost the tournament. We tried very hard not to make the same mistake at Lake Murray.

These results confirm unequivocally that retail price deflation continues, with price deflation across the board showing a month-on-month decline for the third time this year.

Easter this year isn't in March, it's in April, so we always knew that March would be a minus figure. If you allow for the fact that is Easter is normally worth about 1 to 1 1/2 percentage points, then the underlying trend is flat and we expect that to continue.

The probability is that, after adjusting for the timing of Easter, the underlying trend in like-for-like sales is, at best, flat.

The question now is whether some consumers will continue to stay away from central London and whether tourists will be deterred by the threat of further disruption,

No one should be fooled into believing that the slight improvement relative to July indicates a change in trend. Any growth came from heavy discounting, which is not sustainable - especially as retailers' margins are already being squeezed by rising labour, property and energy costs. The underlying position is still weak and unlikely to improve unless and until there are further cuts in interest rates.

While most larger retailers have a broad spectrum of suppliers and are not unduly exposed to China, other retailers will be forced to look at sourcing from other low cost countries,

[The volume of goods passing across high-street tills fell 1 per cent compared with a year ago, based on the same area of selling space. The British Retail Consortium said it was the eighth consecutive monthly fall and was driven by sharp declines in clothing and footwear and food sales.] The underlying position is weak, ... Retailers margins are already being squeezed by rising labour, property and energy costs.

Another slight improvement in like-for like sales is very welcome, especially considering the downward trend in the first half of this year.

We did not expect any change in interest rates today from the Bank of England, although clearly a further reduction in the run-up to Christmas would have been helpful to both retailers and industry in general.

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