22 ordspråk av Kornelius Purps

Kornelius Purps

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These somewhat disappointing figures might remind investors that not everything is bright in the euro zone. The long end has seen its yield highs.

The substantial upward revisions of the staff forecasts imply more rate hikes to come. The market is absolutely right to price in a June rate hike.

We had positive inflation data out of Europe, and the U.S. as well. It's the starting point for yields to come down again.

The market is under pressure at the moment, there's no question about that. This means yields at the long end will rise.

It's becoming harder to believe that the ECB will only raises rates once with confidence high and policy makers sounding hawkish. The short end of the bond market will remain under pressure.

This is a warning that sentiment developments aren't a one-way street, and we may have reached a peak. With the help of ZEW, prices should find a floor and shouldn't drop in the very short term.

This is a warning that sentiment developments aren't a one- way street, and we may have reached a peak. With the help of ZEW, prices should find a floor and shouldn't drop in the very short term.

We could get a mini rally for bonds from a weaker number because it goes against the big expectations for higher rates and stronger growth.

Assume that a time machine is beaming you back to Monday morning. You start the week with the impression of an unexpectedly strong 274k US payroll report in mind. In addition, a clairvoyant tells you that: 1) US retail sales surged by 1.4% m-o-m in April, 2) German growth advanced by 4% q-o-q annualized in Q1 2005, 3) speculation about a revaluation of the Renminbi will intensify, 4) the oil price will fall by about USD 3.50 per barrel this week, 5) and the US Treasury will sell USD 51 bn in Treasury Notes. You make up your mind and conclude that in this environment yields need to go up. At least 99 out of 100 market participants with the same information would have shared your view. But reality is different. Yields are down and down and down again. These are Schwarzenegger markets, no one can beat them.

Yesterday's ECB press conference [November 3, 2005] was great entertainment. Having not heard of Goethe very often in trading rooms as happened yesterday, here's my personal favorite from German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche that sometimes describes life as a research analyst/strategist: ">Das habe ich getan,< sagt mein Gedächtnis. >Das kann ich nicht getan haben< -- sagt mein Stolz und bleibt unerbittlich. Endlich -- gibt das Gedächtnis nach."

In all likelihood, the time when obscure statements [from FED Chairman Alan Greenspan] caused analysts to ponder about the message between the lines will be over as Bernanke is expected to increase transparency by choosing clear-cut language -- more transparency, but less fun.

With Italy's history of more than 50 different governments since World War II, it's hard to believe that a government with such a tight majority will have the mandate to implement the structural reforms demanded by the rating agencies.

It's yet more bad news for GM and we can't rule out the possibility of even worse to come. Given the big sell-off we've had in Treasuries, this is a good time to buy.

In the near term, the gilt market will react to any economic data release that helps shape investors' BOE view. The annual growth figure was lower than expected, showing continuation of declining growth.

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