80 ordspråk av Lyle Gramley

Lyle Gramley

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I don't know what the bond market has been worried about. There's much talk about the possibility of inflation beginning to pick up. I don't see any signs of that at all apart from the rise in energy prices, which we all knew was going to take place.

Anyone who sits at that table knows that if the Fed puts his head up in the midst of an election campaign when it's not necessary to do so, that would be a rather foolish thing to do. You don't want people shooting at you unnecessarily - you'd rather live to fight another day.

The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.'

If this deterioration continues, I think the chances of another rate cut are going to increase significantly, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of an inter-meeting move,

My concern is not with a double-dip recession. It's with the likelihood we are gong to be in an extended period of growth below potential, and that would mean rising unemployment.

I think the Fed needs to worry about the possibility it's flirting with deflation if it lets this go too far. When nominal rates get down toward zero, the Fed starts running out of ammunition.

Greenspan is not a guy likely to brag much, but he'll indicate the economy is still in good condition, that much of the recent bubbling up in inflation is likely to prove transitory, and that fundamentals of the economy are still quite strong despite some of the recent data.

There would be no easy answer,

I do think a pause is coming along at some point. My guess has been all along that a pause was more likely in the first meeting of next year than in December. The October employment report strengthens that view.

I think he's well aware of the fact they need to improve (communication). It's very a difficult thing to do. I think they're improving.

Then the Fed would be in a very tough spot,

If you raise interest rates in the face of what you know will be some pretty awful economic numbers, you must have a lot of confidence about the economy's ultimate recovery and a lot of concern about inflation.

Crisis management has been elevated to a very fine skill under his tutelage.

Financial markets are going to become uneasy about this because Alan Greenspan has become an oracle,

This is a situation where the uncertainties have suddenly become huge. If all the concerns translate into much lower personal spending, then the economy could falter.

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