29 ordspråk av Maury Harris

Maury Harris

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Net net, we think the risks are tilted toward a surprisingly strong gain in [Friday's] report.

A key issue now will be whether the latest spike in gasoline prices leads to another 'soft spot' in consumer spending.

The contained job gains will make it easier for the Fed to convince investors that it will not rush to tighten. We still expect tightening to start only next August.

What we do know is that the system manages to work -- we've been dealing with import penetration in this country for over three decades. Over that period of time, the unemployment rate has had its ups and downs, but there's been no trend increase in unemployment.

I think we're probably more adaptable now than we were in the past. Education is the key to that -- it makes you flexible.

Through the volatility, the trend in claims is gradually downward again, consistent with the labor market slowly starting to regain momentum after a setback in late 2002.

The bond market has been moving on two things today: the movement of stocks and this speculation about the yuan.

Combined with a steady jobless rate and a modestly higher stock market, we believe [economic] growth is sufficient to keep the Fed on hold for now.

We are seeing a 'soft landing' rather than a 'hard landing' in consumer spending for a couple of reasons. First, although job growth is slowing, wages are still rising, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% in October. Second, despite recent stock market turmoil, consumer spirits are holding up reasonably well.

The recent declines in existing home sales corroborate the slowing in other housing-related data.

In that context, he will lose credibility if he under-appreciates the extent to which (economic) growth is already weakening in response to earlier rate hikes.

Certainly, there was nothing in Mr. Greenspan's testimony to suggest he has seen any strong preliminary data from the April employment report.

With consumption accounting for about 70 percent of GDP, the extra strength should add about 0.7 point to total GDP growth.

In crafting today's FOMC statement, we believe Fed officials were undoubtedly influenced by the perception that mixed signals from the Fed, and possibly some loss of credibility, accounted for some of the recent surge in bond yields.

Today's FOMC statement did not add any new specificity or much elaboration, and the initial reaction in the bond market has been limited.

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