53 ordspråk av Michael Moran

Michael Moran

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we are at very high levels in the stock market and I think there is a need for a correction.

These countries could take steps and I think they will take steps that will calm the storm some. But I think it's very clear these countries have to take some major steps to restructure their markets.

The numbers recently are suggesting that we're closer to absorbing most of the impact we've seen from Asia.

This is an especially good reading because I think that we face significant upside risks.

Capacity utilization was up one tenth and from an inflation perspective we still have ample capacity.

The consumer sector has been among the strongest in the economy and I think that's the area that (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and company are really worried about.

If you look at the momentum that the economy has had coming into the year 2000 and if you look at the very small effect that tightening has had so far on the economy I think there is a distinct possibility that we could see four tightening moves, all a quarter of a percentage point,

The consumer sector has been on of the strongest in the economy, and that's the sector that (Federal Reserve chairman Alan) Greenspan worries about.

What I would conclude is that we are backing away from the robust levels of housing activity we saw in the spring and summer of last year, but there is by no means a swoon going on in housing activity just yet.

Mortgage rates have increased an additional 35 basis points from their average in the first quarter,

This is the first definitive evidence that we are starting to lose a little bit of vigor in this area,

At this point, with the information in hand I'm still inclined to look for [an interest rate increase of] 25 basis points from the Fed, but we're seeing some numbers start to pop up that lead you to wonder exactly what the Fed may do. It's not inconceivable that they might decide to hold steady at the end of June.

With various indicators showing signs of softening, the Fed will probably hold steady on June 28, ... We do not think they are finished for the year, but they do not have a compelling case to push further ahead after a 50-basis-point adjustment in May.

The new figures will reinforce the views now emerging among policy-makers that the economy has more inflation resistance than in the past. The gains also dampen the likelihood of (Fed interest rate) adjustments down the road. However, the new data does not assure that the Fed is done for this cycle.

Mortgage rates have moved lower recently and housing could respond in coming months. But the latest information from this cyclical area shows some moderation.

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