28 ordspråk av Mike Wittner

Mike Wittner

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The reason we worry about political risk is that it has a chance to become a real fundamental factor, like it happened in Nigeria, where you lost some real supply. The spare capacity issue for refining and crude production still underlies everything because demand is still healthy.

The speculative money is as much of a key driver for oil prices as Iran and Nigeria. There has been a massive influx of new money into commodities in general since the start of the year.

When you step back and put it all together, it's nice timing. It's a New Year's reminder of the geo-political factors that are driving the market higher.

Strong demand is now priced in. Barring a sustained cold snap, I can't see any fundamental reason for much more of an up-move.

There's a lot of investment money searching for a home. Investors are buying the argument that it's an emerging asset class and we've been seeing that with a vengeance in January.

As far as making a big bet on the weather, even if you're bearish it's still too early to go short in a big way.

The market has three drivers right now: distillate stocks (including heating oil), demand growth and the weather, ... Stocks are moderately bearish, demand is neutral and the calendar itself is moderately bullish, assuming a normal winter.

The market has three drivers right now: distillate stocks (including heating oil), demand growth and the weather. Stocks are moderately bearish, demand is neutral and the calendar itself is moderately bullish, assuming a normal winter.

I think the markets will begin pricing in the downstream investments during 2007.

The markets have been reacting to news on Iran, but the physical oil markets have been fairly relaxed so I'm not surprised to have seen them fall.

The difference from the last couple of years is that supply fears are driving the market.

This is just drifting around. But the Nigeria situation, as the weeks wear on, is providing a firmer floor for the market.

Another surge of new money is coming into the commodity markets.

It's all more fodder for financial investors.

The market has consolidated for the last day and a half. If the gasoline draws are larger than expected, we'll be off to the races again.

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