210 ordspråk av Ned Riley

Ned Riley

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What's going to be key over the next week and determine how stocks perform is the interplay of pre-announcements versus brokerage upgrades. The corporate news will become more relevant than the economic news as we get closer to the period of quarterly reporting.

This is one of the most challenging periods for markets I've seen in a while. Short-term fundamentals are improving, but socio-political overtones are pulling people away from the positives. Even with closing a little higher, today's (Wednesday) activity was just an extension of what we've seen the whole week.

I'm impressed. It's a great Rolaids rally; it showed some relief out there.

Technology's high prices make them vulnerable.

What we have now is an economy that's slowing down. I think we're going to see some cyclicality to tech earnings.

With the exception of the Dow, it (was) eerily quiet, waiting for Cisco's results. The Dow is clearly the strongest (today) and it's because there's still a lot of money flowing out of technology.

There was a combination of things that really depressed it. One was Hewlett-Packard's shortfall and we had a sympathetic sell-off using the political environment as a backdrop. Ironically, IBM remained the stalwart and it probably gave the notion of stability to the tech sector and we saw some people looking for bargains.

I think what we have is a recognition by investors that there is some decent value at this price. But whether they have the intestinal fortitude to stay during further adverse times is still unanswered. Today, they seem to have rallied based on the expectation that there is cheapness in some of these stocks.

It was a year of awakening for the new investor on Wall Street and it was a very quick and sudden reversal of fortunes for many. We ran the emotional gamut from total irrational thinking and perception to reality and capitulation. Last year's market did reinforce the notion that abuses and excesses are eventually corrected and eventually reach a level of overreaction -- and that's how the year ended.

There is a serious shift going from the growth companies in the old economy to growth companies in the new economy that have been quite tarnished over the past nine months. The tech recession was the catalyst and we are genuinely seeing a slowdown in old economy sectors.

Fundamentally, I think that many of the reports, from companies like Intel, Apple and IBM do portray a relatively sound tech environment. But people are anxious right now generally.

I think it's basically a case of no interest on either the buy or the sell side. People have already emotionally prepared for the long weekend, and they don't want to carry much ahead of it.

I think it would be difficult for Kerry to prove that the tax cuts were not effective.

This administration is seen as being very pro-investment, whereas Kerry is seen as wanting to rewrite the rules -- on capital gains, tax cuts on the wealthy, certain business regulations. I think, for market psychology, that would be damaging.

It should be evident by now that the rest of the earnings are going to come in at the same sort of magnitude over estimates. The focus is going to shift.

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