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Orawin Velz

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We don't see a bubble because the strength didn't come from speculative demand. It came from low 30-year mortgage rates, good demographics and other good fundamental factors that boosted demand. Even if demand declines, we won't see home sales falling off a cliff.

It could be that home builders are trying to work off the supply of permitted properties they have in the pipeline. If you look at leading indicators of the housing market, you really have to say this cannot be sustained.

Double-digit increases in home prices are not sustainable.

We estimate cash-out refinancing for 2001 is going to raise cash from home equity of about $80 billion. About 60 percent [about $50 billion] of that will be spent.

We're expecting a decline in employment because we expect the volume of originations to decline pretty significantly next year -- 20 percent.

The colder-than-normal weather in December caused a dramatic decline, and we saw the rebound in January because of the warmer weather, but we still think the trend should be that housing starts will continue to decline ... about 5% this year.

But if core inflation slows in the next two months, that would be a good cause to pause.

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