136 ordspråk av Paul Kasriel

Paul Kasriel

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When the fog of war is finally lifted, we may find that economic growth remains weak because monetary policy turns out to be less accommodative than the Fed thought,

The Fed is happy to provide all the reserves the banking system needs, ... It's told the banking system 'Ya'll lend now,' and they're doing it.

Households have not meaningfully repaired their balance sheets since the onset of the last recession, ... Households are not 'better positioned' than they were earlier to boost outlays as their wariness about the economic environment abates. If anything, they are more poorly positioned to do so.

What'll happen is you'll see bond yields spiking higher, the dollar spiking lower and the Fed then having to raise rates, ... At that time, housing will probably start to weaken, stocks won't do well, and our standard of living will go down.

All that's happening when I buy stock is that my money supply goes down, while the seller's money supply goes up,

This is something that people who keep raising their forecasts for 2004 GDP should be concerned about, ... If households are going to stop spending, then businesses won't continue to spend.

Do you have to be reeducated? Maybe not -- maybe you just need to accept a lower wage rate,

At some point we will have equalization, where an employer will be indifferent between hiring someone in Bangalore or Chicago,

In a longer-run sense, I would view it as marginally unproductive, a worsening of the trade-off between growth and inflation, ... But will we be able to detect that? I doubt it.

If the Fed pauses here, rates will come down, the house ATM machine will get filled up again, and we can all go back and do more refinancing, ... But if they keep going, like some people believe they will, then we will have a recession in the second half of 2005.

OPEC doesn't suffer from money illusion. It decided they want an honest dollar for an honest barrel of oil.

A recession is in the eye of the beholder, and the eye of the NBER, but clearly we're struggling here. We're at stall speed and it's not clear what, in the short term, is going to get the economy's nose up.

I agree with Gross. It's been refinancing of mortgages -- basically eating into one's seed corn -- that has been sustaining consumer spending. When that peters out, it's not clear what's going to kick in.

Exports are rising, and exports are likely to continue to do better as we move through the second half because of recovering economies abroad. So I think this really, especially with the inventories, sets up for a strong rebound in third quarter GDP, conservatively something along the lines of 3.75 percent.

If it's working as it's supposed to work, bankruptcy ... does tend to force a reallocation of resources to the most or more productive areas.

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