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136 ordspråk av Paul Kasriel

Paul Kasriel

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The lady doth protest too much, methinks.

Basically we made a lot of ill-advised investments. We need to readjust the economy, and cheap credit isn't necessarily going to be the way to do that.

There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go.

When the fog of war is finally lifted, we may find that economic growth remains weak because monetary policy turns out to be less accommodative than the Fed thought.

The Fed is happy to provide all the reserves the banking system needs. It's told the banking system 'Ya'll lend now,' and they're doing it.

Households have not meaningfully repaired their balance sheets since the onset of the last recession. Households are not 'better positioned' than they were earlier to boost outlays as their wariness about the economic environment abates. If anything, they are more poorly positioned to do so.

People need to reload here -- they can't buy a car every month. But don't fret, because we're going to get a big tax refund next year, and that will cause spending to pick back up.

What'll happen is you'll see bond yields spiking higher, the dollar spiking lower and the Fed then having to raise rates. At that time, housing will probably start to weaken, stocks won't do well, and our standard of living will go down.

Historically, movements like this have led to a slowdown in economic activity. While the relationship between money supply and economic growth has deteriorated, the basic qualitative relationship seems to have held up pretty well, so this is of some concern.

All that's happening when I buy stock is that my money supply goes down, while the seller's money supply goes up.

This is something that people who keep raising their forecasts for 2004 GDP should be concerned about. If households are going to stop spending, then businesses won't continue to spend.

Do you have to be reeducated? Maybe not -- maybe you just need to accept a lower wage rate.

At some point we will have equalization, where an employer will be indifferent between hiring someone in Bangalore or Chicago.

In a longer-run sense, I would view it as marginally unproductive, a worsening of the trade-off between growth and inflation. But will we be able to detect that? I doubt it.

If the Fed pauses here, rates will come down, the house ATM machine will get filled up again, and we can all go back and do more refinancing. But if they keep going, like some people believe they will, then we will have a recession in the second half of 2005.

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