14 ordspråk av Paul McCulley

Paul McCulley

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You don't get the attention of gluttons by starving anorexics.

The biggest issue right now is that natural-gas prices and winter heating bills are probably going to be up 30 percent versus last year. And for a good chunk of the country, that matters even more than the price of filling up the SUV,

The gold bugs missed that. But they were not wrong, even though most of them went broke. In the end, fiat currency regimes are inflationist. Soaring gold over the last year has coincided with the Fed's open acknowledgement that it has fallen off the disinflation wagon, not because it could not help itself, but because it had no choice.

That might leave some people scratching their heads. Ultimately they get the message, but you need a translator at times.

But there does have to be a point, ... where the doctor says, 'Fridge, you gotta go back to eating.'

The turnaround can't be anywhere as robust and profound as the data said this week. At the same time, from a market perspective you have to respect that the data was above expectations. So it's a negative for bonds.

The essence of the problem is that the war against inflation is over, ... Ever since 1979 the Fed was fighting a war against inflation, and you always knew which way you wanted the inflation rate to go over the long run -- down.

To say this is the last day of the bear market would be an act of hubris.

The sheer act of tightening will be viewed in the bond market as the sun coming up in the East.

The bond market is debating with itself what the intent of the Fed is. I don't think the Fed has a multi-step process. They are taking it step by step.

Remember, benchmark performance -- beta -- can be had for virtually free; alpha is what active managers are paid to generate.

The lion's share of the bear market is over, ... It's a two-part issue. Yes, the marketplace could be nasty. But there's a great deal of nastiness that's already happened in the bond market.

Rightly or wrongly, most Americans look at mortgage equity withdrawal as the closest thing to a free lunch.

The gold bugs missed that, ... But they were not wrong, even though most of them went broke. In the end, fiat currency regimes are inflationist. Soaring gold over the last year has coincided with the Fed's open acknowledgement that it has fallen off the disinflation wagon, not because it could not help itself, but because it had no choice.

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