35 ordspråk av Peter Kretzmer

Peter Kretzmer

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The main point is that when they sit down, they will conclude that what we want to do is to continue to remove the accommodative policy.

My reckoning is it will subtract a couple of tenths of a percent, so we will have first-quarter GDP at 1.5 percent instead of 2.0 percent.

Spending ended the quarter on a strong note, and that largely reflects the return of growth in auto sales. It's confirmation that spending was getting back on track.

Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.

The economy looks strong, as does the industrial base.

We look for the report to confirm that economic activity remains strong. Retail spending will slow later this year but that hasn't shown up yet, and business investment should continue to be pretty strong as companies expand offices and factories.

The price of gold is not particularly well explained by monetary policy.

There hasn't been a lot of correlation between commodity prices and inflation since 1990.

We don't have a lot of inflation.

With interest rates rising and demand for new home ownership slowing, it is likely that stronger demand for rental properties will push rental rates up at a higher pace.

On balance, recent inflation reports have shown the Fed evidence of pipeline commodity price pressures but with little impact on consumer inflation trends,

Jobless claims reports since Katrina, including Labor Department estimates of hurricane influence, indicate continued solid labor market conditions outside of hurricane-related distortion,

That's consistent with the idea that labor market conditions are not really improving yet. They're not getting worse, either, but they've only stabilized.

It assures that the Fed continues to not buck what was built into the futures contract, and will move by 25 basis points in September.

If crude oil prices keep on rising, the chances that consumption is going to be hurt further down the line rises. That means the Fed could be more gradual in raising rates.

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