11 ordspråk av Razia Khan

Razia Khan

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Lower inflation at the start of the year suggests that South Africa will be able to take geopolitical risks in its stride. At this point, even the rise in oil is not a huge concern.

While oil prices remain high, what matters for the inflation outlook is a further rise in oil prices.

The euro will continue to weaken. The ECB (European Central Bank) needs to do something (cut interest rates) to make sure euro-zone growth is not damaged by a slowdown in the U.S.

It's felt it's too soon after the introduction of euro notes and coins for any change. The ECB will not do anything to overshadow that move.

Tax relief for individuals is promised, although with demand robust, policy makers will be wary of stoking pressures too far.

The time may now be ripe for controls on individuals to be dismantled.

Given the perception that much of the capital likely to leave the country is already invested offshore, lifting the R750000 allowance for individuals would have little macro effect, but would go a long way in boosting confidence.

On the customer side we are seeing a great deal more interest in Africa and a lot of funds in particular who previously were perhaps looking at other emerging markets are now looking at Africa in a new way.

Africa provides investors with potentially far higher yields than are available in other markets.

Suddenly sovereign credit ratings look a lot better in these countries and as a result banks would become more comfortable with African risk.

Psychologically it appears as though inflation is coming down rapidly. It makes us even more comfortable with the view that rates will stay on hold this year.

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