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Richard Curtin

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Prospects for the economy have improved substantially from the lows recorded following the Gulf Coast hurricanes and the surge in gas prices. Firms still expect a slower overall pace of economic growth during 2006 than in 2005. The expected growth slowdown is mainly due to anticipated increases in interest rates. Firms are much more optimistic about their own prospects in 2006, as they expected strong growth in revenues and profits.

Consumers view high gas prices as a threat to their living standards and a threat to the ability of the economy to create new jobs.

The recent increases in gas prices have thrown a cold blanket on consumers' hopes for additional declines in gas prices.

Consumers have found it especially difficult to cope during the winter months with both higher home heating bills as well as higher gasoline costs.

TEC firms reported that substantial gains in the overall economy have already occurred. They anticipate continued gains during the year ahead.

The gap in how low- and high-income households view their current finances and future prospects is the widest in two decades. It's an unusual circumstance.

Although higher income and employment levels have offset the impact of rising gas prices on consumer confidence, there is a considerable degree of dread about future prospects among middle- and lower-income households.

Consumers anticipated that higher interest rates will ultimately slow the overall pace of economic growth.

A majority of households now expect an economic downturn and bad financial times by the end of this year.

If the economy produces jobs at a more rapid rate in the months ahead, these apprehensions of consumers could quickly fade.

Restoring consumer confidence becomes more than just a matter of economic stimulus. A renewal in confidence may also require the restoration of a sense of personal safety among large parts of the population.

Although firms did expect a slightly slower pace of growth, they still judge overall economic conditions quite favorable.

The highest proportion of consumers in two decades anticipate a falling unemployment rate in 2004.

Consumers have become increasingly pessimistic about their future income and job prospects, and as a result will continue to slow the pace of their spending during months ahead.

On average, consumers have anticipated changes in the unemployment rate three quarters in advance of the actual change.

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