91 ordspråk av Richard Yamarone

Richard Yamarone

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The economy is motoring along and we are indeed creating more than a decent amount of jobs. But there are a number of hurdles that lie in our path of prosperity ? record energy prices and the economic consequences of Hurricane Katrina.

The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.

If they didn't pause after Katrina, they are not going to pause in the next few months.

You haven't heard one story in the last ten months, 12 months, of any company saying, hey, we have intentions of hiring. We're going to be hiring. No company has said that.

Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.

We are going to have a winter of discontent.

I don't think these high energy prices are going away any time soon. Consumers are pulling back.

For all intents and purposes the Fed is going to move at a measured pace whether that word is in there or not. And now, the longer end of the yield curve should react more to Fed moves.

We're more likely to get between 100,000 to 200,000, maybe 250,000 jobs a month in the coming months, and fluctuating -- very choppy,

I think for all intent and purposes, you really have to rule out a Fed rate hike on October 5,

This is good news. For all intents and purposes, this is really good data. Some equities should rally on this.

I firmly believe that the Fed does not know what it's going to do, certainly not at this point, ... the big linchpin in this whole thing.

I don't think this is worrisome at all. We're coming off an extremely strong month.

It's not just an oasis,

There's no inflation anywhere to be found in the U.S. economy, and that's good for bonds. It's more than an oasis of prosperity, it's more like Fantasy Island.

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