175 ordspråk av Robert Brusca

Robert Brusca

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While everybody is very happy with the performance of the economy under Greenspan, it's come at quite a price. We have a negative savings rate. The consumer has been out spending his and her income, partly supported by an increase in housing prices, where people had to pull a lot of the equity out of their home. Well they can't do that again.

The rise, however, does not mean that housing is out of the woods -- far from it. The Fed is still hiking.

The tone seems a bit hawkish -- he admits to little in the way of signs of softness in the economy or risks to growth.

The trade deficit seems to only get bigger and never recede.

The trade deficit seems to only get bigger and never recede. The reasons are clear, oil prices are up, foreign growth is still relatively weak and US growth is strong. There is no reason to forecast a lower deficit.

It is no time to be dogmatic.

[The figures] fell in the largest markets, and where they fell, the bottom dropped out. In the West, sales plunged by 29.4 percent, a figure so large it is hard to believe. In the South, sales fell by 6.4 percent. These are the two biggest markets.

It's really a soft batch of numbers today. Nothing says 'recession' or severe slowdown but there is a consistent signal of softness that permeates these reports and belies some of the strength in consumer spending that we have seen early in the year.

Consumers are conflicted. They feel fine for now, but they are worried about the future.

This is an economy that is giving contradictory signals. You don't have companies willing to build inventories, which show that they don't have a lot of confidence. Retailers are pumping sales by discounts, but you can't inflate confidence.

The problem of the war was it was so easy to finance, if that is a problem.

The conundrum is the Fed, and why the it keeps raising rates.

During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,

The soft spot is looking to be bigger and softer all the time.

Oil is an important culprit. But it is much more than that. Non-oil imports rose by 0.6 percent.

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