18 ordspråk av Scott Hoyt

Scott Hoyt

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Going forward, sales growth will be more modest and inconsistent. Fundamentals are mixed. The biggest drag is high and rising gasoline and other energy prices.

People feel rich because of their real estate. If they can meet their wealth accumulation goals just by watching their houses appreciate, why save?

Clearly, malls continue to struggle. Consumers are focused on easy in and easy out.

We're assuming January was all about the weather.

The surge in building supplies is definitely tied to favorable weather as were increases in restaurant, furniture and department store sales.

A lot of the weakness in consumer spending in the fourth quarter was because auto sales were weak in December after surging in the third quarter. It's important to look beyond auto sales. At least for the first quarter, it's not going to take much for consumer spending to look good.

Retail sales posted stunning results.

It just suggests that consumers, particularly lower-end consumers, are going to be more stretched when these loans reset, with potentially negative implications for spending growth.

The outlook is modestly positive. Declining energy prices will boost real incomes and spending.

If consumer spending falls, the probability of the economy slipping back into recession is very high.

Year over year, the data shows, this will be the strongest holiday season since 1999. But because consumers have been spending since September, there's not much pent-up demand. Consumers have already spent up demand.

Consumer spending is likely to become much more dependent on jobs and confidence by the third quarter, ... If labor markets have not turned, boosting confidence by then, the risk of a significant slowing in consumer spending will be very high.

They're moving away from bank cards and credit cards -- short-term installment debt -- into various forms of mortgage borrowing with lower interest rates and long terms.

The raises in interest rates will reduce the willingness and ability of consumers to continue their pace of borrowing. This is both directly -- through the cost of debt -- and indirectly -- because it's likely to slow house price appreciation.

The last week or two of the season can make or break it.

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