119 ordspråk av Sherry Cooper

Sherry Cooper

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I'm not worried about inflation per se ; I'm worried about inflation in asset prices. When the Fed has been aggressively easy in the past, it's ended up having to come in and aggressively raise interest rates and cause a lot of unnecessary dislocation.

When the 10-year yield got to 4.4 percent Tuesday, I said this was probably a short-term buying opportunity and that we would see some correction.

It certainly affects psychology, but if the job market starts growing, that effect is far more important to psychology than something that's happening half a world away.

While we would not get too excited, these data are just the right stuff to further trends already under way in financial markets. Whispers about Fed easing are sure to follow.

Inflation in the U.S. remains virtually non-existent, as does corporate pricing power.

U.S. industrial activity is improving, but it can't be described as healthy just yet.

October and November ... sales each registered substantial gains (excluding autos), pointing to a reasonable fourth-quarter consumer spending figure when all is said and done.

Armed with the weaker U.S. dollar, commodity prices heading north, and a strengthening economy, rising inflation pressure is still likely to emerge as a concern for the Fed. But not yet. Not yet.

The shift in the Fed chair will be seamless,

Despite slowing job growth momentum, the Fed is going to pay attention to the diminishing slack (the 5 per cent unemployment rate could be as low as 4.8 per cent if not for the hurricanes) and the pickup in wage pressures,

The repercussions on global trade would be devastating, ... Given that virtually all major economies have a surplus with the (United States), trade disruptions would shutter manufacturing plants and curtail global demand for most commodities.

that the coming holiday season will be rosier than earlier expected.

The inflation data does not take the Fed out of the picture. It does, however, remove the risk of the Fed having to tighten 50 basis points on June 30.

The bank's new focus is likely to be on rising wage pressures, but that still seems a distant inflation threat at this point. On balance, there is nothing here to divert the bank from its gradual tightening course.

Although the cooling U.S. housing sector is going be a major drag on consumer spending as 2006 unfolds, consumers are starting the year in an upbeat mood, buoyed by solid labor markets. As such, U.S. consumer spending could display more early-year resilience than is currently expected.

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