42 ordspråk av Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas

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The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged,

Bollard is clearly frustrated, ... The kiwi dollar is too strong, adding to external imbalances by making it harder for exporters to compete. He would love to see the currency falling.

Our view is that US80¢ is certainly achievable by year-end,

The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged.

Bollard is clearly frustrated. The kiwi dollar is too strong, adding to external imbalances by making it harder for exporters to compete. He would love to see the currency falling.

If RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard needed more information to stop hiking interest rates, the house-building consents data today fit the bill.

Underlying inflation is still sufficiently strong for the RBA to maintain a fairly strong bias to increase interest rates in the months ahead, although the urgency for a rate rise is not yet extreme.

There's an opportunity to buy U.S. dollars on the expectation that by the second half of this year U.S. strength will be sustained.

We are still waiting for an improvement in trade to fuel the economy. The trade deficit has been large for a long time.

Housing construction is likely to be weak into the first half of 2006 and possibly beyond. It works against the tightening bias of the Reserve Bank.

We are just hoping the export sector kicks into growth during 2006. Improvement in the trade deficit has been a long-time coming.

The news should provide support for the Australian dollar with a hint that the trade balance will continue to narrow.

We forecast the Reserve Bank will raise rates by the middle of the year as it works to damp inflation pressures that are still pronounced.

With the core inflation readings fly-papered to a narrow range around 2.5 per cent, there is scope for the RBA to continue its rates-on-hold strategy for several more months.

I'm always worried with the consensus being unambiguously strong and unrelenting in the view they hold. But at this stage, maybe it's so obvious that the consensus may be right.

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