78 ordspråk av Stephen Roach

Stephen Roach

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We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,

It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.

The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring.

I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.

Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.

[This] is just another nail in the coffin for the world economy.

You've got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found.

Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on.

I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.

that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.

The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security.

To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.

Without the consumer, revival remains all too dependent on tenuous support from China and [business investment].

Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.

The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.

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