30 ordspråk av Steve Stanley

Steve Stanley

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It is reassuring that the February drop in confidence appears to have been a one-off event rather than the beginning of a trend.

While many will be disappointed that we will not necessarily see huge upward revisions to payrolls ... a significant upward revision to wages would also be a positive development, as it suggests that consumers have more firepower than we thought.

To the extent that the Fed has emphasized how important benign inflation expectations are in maintaining price stability, ... the June results are disturbing.

The bottom line is that the housing sector, at least for now, is more than holding its own in the face of higher but not yet high mortgage rates,

The bottom line is that, with employment and income gains picking up, it will take mortgage rates a lot higher than 6.24 percent to choke off housing demand. We will probably get to a level of rates that bites eventually, but certainly not in the next few months.

No one should have any false hope that the trade gap is going to narrow much or for very long, but at least the speed of the underlying deterioration is less than we thought.

Once we get a few strong payroll gains, the tightening cycle will commence, ... That could be three months away or another year away. No one, including Greenspan, knows the timeframe; but make no mistake, tightening is coming sooner or later.

There have been a number of strong offsetting influences on consumer moods so far this month. Obviously, the two biggest negatives are the shaky jobs situation and rising gasoline and energy prices,

The Chairman (over the two days) was surprisingly hawkish, and we should be ready for rate hikes as soon as the data justify them,

While concerns about the impact of rising interest rates will be a frequent theme of discussion in the press and financial markets, homebuilders and realtors are confident that favorable demographics and an improved economy/job market should help, at least for a while, to compensate for the dampening effect of the upturn in borrowing costs on housing demand,

The core consumer price index (CPI) has risen by 3.3 percent annualized over the past three months, ... We'd all better hope that some of this is 'transitory.'

All in all, this is significantly more hawkish than I suspect market participants were anticipating, ... Bond market players have been throwing around theories about a second half slowdown, with the June data creating a huge stir, but the Fed has almost not given that idea a second thought.

Once we get a few strong payroll gains, the tightening cycle will commence. That could be three months away or another year away. No one, including Greenspan, knows the timeframe; but make no mistake, tightening is coming sooner or later.

The Chairman (over the two days) was surprisingly hawkish, and we should be ready for rate hikes as soon as the data justify them.

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