237 ordspråk av Steven Wood

Steven Wood

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Housing activity, which has contributed significantly to economic growth over the past 2-1/2 years, has now passed its peak and will be largely neutral to negative over the next several quarters. This slowdown will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.

With still strong domestic demand and improving international demand, the factory sector is continuing to recover from the sluggishness that resulted from the Asian economic crisis.

These data are consistent with slightly better pricing power for both importers and exporters, which reflects the improvement in international economic activity. However, the gains are sufficiently restrained as to not cause any concerns about broader based measures of inflation.

It's unclear whether the declines are related to year-end concerns or to a more general softening in manufacturing activity, but they do add evidence to the (Fed's) forecast for slower growth going forward.

These data continue to show that the housing market remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates. This resiliency will make it more difficult for the (Federal Open Market Committee) to slow the economy.

Some of the December strength and January weakness appears to be related to Y2K precautions; the (Federal Open Market Committee) will need a lot more evidence of a slowdown in consumer spending than this to convince them that further tightening is not warranted.

While a portion of this strength is due to unseasonably mild winter weather, it is obvious that higher interest rates are, so far, having little dampening impact on construction.

Although the level of sales is still relatively high, the solid growth of the past three years has been arrested, helping the Fed's efforts to slow the pace of economic growth. However, mortgage rates have declined over the last six weeks, so further substantial weakness may not be forthcoming.

Although manufacturing activity is still expanding, momentum in the manufacturing sector has clearly faded. This report confirms that the FOMC was correct in pausing their tightening cycle at last week's meeting.

While these data will be welcome by the (Fed), two key questions remain. Will the second quarter spending slow down extend through the rest of the year? Economic fundamentals suggest they will. And will the spending slowdown be sufficient to relieve pressure on labor markets and inflation? At this point, that is still an open question.

The (Fed policy makers) will welcome this data as providing further confirmation that the slowing of economic growth in Q2 (the second quarter) has been extended into Q3.

The FOMC will be pleased with this report.

The FOMC is smiling, as their preferred scenario is largely unfolding.

Slower output and employment growth is dampening real income gains, which in turn is slowing spending. Although the monthly data continue to be quite volatile during this transition period, the underlying trends are unmistakable -- the economy is slowing from its torrid pace.

Given (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's) concerns regarding consumer attitudes this development has to be seen as worrisome.

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