57 ordspråk av Stuart Hoffman

Stuart Hoffman

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Overall, this was kind of a vanilla report. These are solid numbers, but the market had already absorbed the fact May was a good month.

Growth is stronger, but inflation is less, so it's still that great combination of strong economic growth with even less inflation than expected that's helping bonds.

There is no question that we've entered a new era. The question seems to be how long it will continue, and the jury is still out on that one.

Inflation, it's been a clean sweep for July. We learned earlier this month wages were unchanged, yesterday producer prices fell again, and this morning you're right on the money, relatively benign consumer price inflation report. No problem.

If we hadn't had Katrina we'd be saying what a bad hurricane (Rita) was, but in the aftermath of Katrina we're saying, 'Boy, aren't we lucky,'

It's not a good sign when delinquencies rise, There are enough other positive things in the consumer sector to say this is not a signal for some significant retrenchment ... that could threaten the economy.

There will be some uncertainty in the markets building up at the end of the year. There will be some jitters.

Will there be some turnover? Of course.

The stock and bond markets are looking at the report and seeing the signs of strength, and they know the Fed is doing the same.

What it does show is that the Federal Reserve has more work to do.

It's clear that job growth in the last three months has been as slow as it has been in quite a while. It is a picture of a somewhat slower or weaker job market.

The underlying message here is that the Fed is rounding for third and heading for home plate. But they are not finished playing yet.

I think the Fed will move a quarter of a point at the end of June, then they may pause. I don't think they're going to stop. I don't think the ball game is over. I think if we are in the late innings and it's still a tie between the risks of higher inflation and slower growth, as Dick Fisher did say, this could go into extra innings.

The report is stronger than appears on the surface. Unlike other parts of the economy, manufacturing activity moved up, so I would say in general this is a pretty solid report. Utility output was down probably because of the relatively cool summer we had.

The CPI captured the center stage as it's the biggest one-month increase in 25 years, ... We certainly know why, with energy prices having skyrocketed.

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