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The dollar's downward trend should continue, as real money flows are leaning on the selling side,

Thinking about the market's dollar bullishness, even bad figures could push up the dollar. The dollar is likely to react to the numbers only on the upside.

The on-year rise in core CPI backs up our forecast of an exit from quantitative easing in April of next year, but the market's interest has shifted to the timing of an interest-rate hike.

Hedge funds don't necessarily move in the same direction at the same time. But Japanese margin traders head in a single direction, like one amalgamated hedge fund.

If these Japanese individual investors choose to abandon their massive holdings for one reason or another, the Kiwi could fall by more than 5 yen.

China is letting the yuan rise in very small increments, so the need to buy dollars remains. So long as it continues this policy, the pace of buying will remain constant, and its reserves will keep rising.

If GDP is stronger than expected, we will see more dollar appreciation.

If GDP is stronger-than-expected, we will see more dollar appreciation.

This is an unwinding of the yen's short positions.

Good auction results show continuing inflows of foreign funds into the U.S., supporting the dollar.

The data proved to be as strong as earlier expected, pushing the yen up briefly ... but the yen was later dumped after a modest upturn.

Japan's good economic data for the past several months have actually been a yen-selling factor.

If the U.S. indicators turn out stronger than expected this week, the market will start pricing in a fed funds rate of more than 5 percent. That should be supportive for the dollar.

If the amount of capital flows into U.S. securities misses the market forecast for the second straight month, that could lead to further declines in the dollar given the current (market) conditions.

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